“ Hate crimes targeting LGBTQ people are more common in Restrictive States, they argue, but are more likely to go unreported because of a culture of silence, whereas LGBTQ people who’ve been victimised because of their identity in Non-Restrictive States are more likely to report it to the relevant authorities.”
…I was thinking another contributing factor they can claim is that non-restrictive states are more likely to identify incidents as hate-related and record them as such, whereas restrictive states aren’t as inclined to sort crimes this way. In other words, a gay guy getting beat up by a straight guy is automatically a hate crime in some places, but it’s just a guy getting beat up by another guy in other places.
I’m not sure if that’s true, though, and I don’t have the patience that you do to comb through the data to find out.
I know I'm super late to the party. Just found your Substack and been combing through past articles. Really digging your work!
Question on your math, e.g., in figure 4. The 2021-2022 average for non-restrictive states is 3,170 and for restrictive states is 776; I'd expect the avg for all states (restrictive + non-restrictive) to be in between those two averages, and it is--2,361. Why is this not true for the 2015-2019 average? In other words, how can the 2015-2019 average be 913 for non-restrictive states, 399 for restrictive states, but somehow a higher 1,311 for the combination of restrictive + non-restrictive?
Thank you for your comment. I've checked my workings and can confirm that the figures for 2015-19 are accurate. However, I have identified an unrelated error in figures 4, 5 and 6, on the basis of which I must retract this article. Thank you for bringing it to my attention.
I appreciate you delving into the data.
On this point:
“ Hate crimes targeting LGBTQ people are more common in Restrictive States, they argue, but are more likely to go unreported because of a culture of silence, whereas LGBTQ people who’ve been victimised because of their identity in Non-Restrictive States are more likely to report it to the relevant authorities.”
…I was thinking another contributing factor they can claim is that non-restrictive states are more likely to identify incidents as hate-related and record them as such, whereas restrictive states aren’t as inclined to sort crimes this way. In other words, a gay guy getting beat up by a straight guy is automatically a hate crime in some places, but it’s just a guy getting beat up by another guy in other places.
I’m not sure if that’s true, though, and I don’t have the patience that you do to comb through the data to find out.
Great work!
This is a possible contributing factor that I hadn't considered. Thanks for pointing it out.
I know I'm super late to the party. Just found your Substack and been combing through past articles. Really digging your work!
Question on your math, e.g., in figure 4. The 2021-2022 average for non-restrictive states is 3,170 and for restrictive states is 776; I'd expect the avg for all states (restrictive + non-restrictive) to be in between those two averages, and it is--2,361. Why is this not true for the 2015-2019 average? In other words, how can the 2015-2019 average be 913 for non-restrictive states, 399 for restrictive states, but somehow a higher 1,311 for the combination of restrictive + non-restrictive?
Thank you for your comment. I've checked my workings and can confirm that the figures for 2015-19 are accurate. However, I have identified an unrelated error in figures 4, 5 and 6, on the basis of which I must retract this article. Thank you for bringing it to my attention.
Excellent breakdown, very well done.
Great analysis --thank you for going to the trouble.
You're never going to become a progressive, if you keep relying on facts and logic!